Just a little under a week ago – I wrote that Theresa May had but one option left. The only question I had was a simple one. Was she brazen enough to take it?
All signals so far suggest she might well be. In the aftermath of the devastating defeat of her Brexit deal, all and sundry were calling on her to make an announcement. A statement to put an end to the ‘No deal’ Brexit scenario.
Last week I outlined my reasoning as to why that would be a terrible idea. In a nutshell it is the only bargaining chip she has left.
Today was all about her Brexit plan B in the House of Commons. There is no Brexit planned B of course, other than to encourage the European Union to take another look at the backstop.
As you can see from the above headline and plenty more like it, it looks as if she is attempting to plot the correct course ( for Britain not Ireland!) in order to bring about a satisfactory conclusion to Brexit and take the UK out of the union.
Already this evening we have seen that Poland have started to falter. The Irish Independent is reporting they have suggested that a time limit should be put on the backstop, something in the order of 5 years. More will likely follow their lead. Ireland could very well find itself under as much pressure from Europe by the end of next week as Theresa May did right up until the Commons defeat.
By seemingly doing nothing to progress the existing deal over the weekend, Theresa May is now starting to get Europe’s attention. Forcing them to act.
One cannot but have a grudging admiration for the woman despite all the missteps. She has seen off a Leadership challenge and a no-confidence motion put down by Jeremy Corbyn and Labour. I believe she at all times has acted and worked to implement the result of the Brexit Referendum, to implement the will of the British people as recorded on that date. It has been far from easy. When all is said and done the Hard line Brexiteers were no help to her. In many cases you could argue that they ran away from the responsibility.
I don’t think anyone could say the same thing of Theresa May. She may still fail but nobody really can question the honesty of her effort. I am convinced that regardless of how it all plays out that she will resign on or near the 30th of March.
IF SHE STICKS WITH HER CURRENT COURSE OF ACTION SHE WILL GET THE BACKSTOP REMOVED
Once the backstop is removed she has a much, much better chance of getting this whole deal over the line.
If and when when concessions are made on the backstop – the invisible Remainer’s on all sides of the House will be forced to reveal themselves and more crucially organise themselves quickly. However I do not think there is enough time to get a groundswell of MP’s to block an unbackstopped deal. They have not used the last week wisely if a second referendum was their goal.
Theresa May has often times looked like a punch drunk boxer over the last few months, but as she rises from her stool for the final round, I find myself suddenly fancying her chances of landing the knockout blow.