Brexit ain’t happening folks – Time to move on

My favorite part of Breaking Bad was about 3 episodes before the end of each season.  That’s when all the plot lines started to knit together. At this point Walter White and Jesse started to get their shit together or not at all as the case may be. We are now at the same stage of Brexit negotiations and you would be forgiven for thinking Saul Goodman is in charge of things.

Irish people obviously are more than innocent bystanders in this whole melodrama playing out, what with the whole border thing and the fact that the UK is still our 2nd biggest trading partner with about 18 billion dollars of trade a year.

Most ordinary, everyday people i talk to on this subject speak a lot of sense on this matter. Far more so than anything i hear coming out of Politicans or television commentators.

To be fair most people in Ireland are more worried about the re-introduction of the border than about huge losses in trade. The non existence of the border is a symbol to the people of Ireland on how much progress we have made in co-habiting this island peacefully – or relatively peacefully over the last 20 odd years.

Let me say something Bananas at this juncture. I don’t think Brexit is going to happen on Mar 29th next year. Not a Hard Brexit,  not a Soft Brexit, not a middle of the road Bon Jovi Brexit.

Why you may ask? – Pretty Simple. Theresa May cannot get any type of deal through the House of Commons. As such Britain is still actually waiting to have it’s Brexit General Election. The last election turned out Not to be that Brexit election. The terrorist attacks played their part in that and also Brexit was still at the juncture, a thing that you could kick down the road. Well as you can tell with the increase in noise from your TV or twitter feed the end of the road is nigh.

For what is worth I think Ireland as the only English speaking nation left in the Union will do fine. Similarly  once the initial shock waves of an exit subside the UK will find its feet pretty quickly.

I think what will happen,  is that an election will be triggered by some action in the negotiations in the next three months. Britain will get it’s Brexit General Election. The March 29th Deadline will be put back by a certain length of time. A long and torturous proper set of negotiation will begin.  At the end of which the UK will have a second referendum. THAT THEN WILL DETERMINE WHETHER THEY STAY OR GO.

In many ways i admire that the UK stuck up two fingers to the EU and voted to leave as there is a growing sense everyday, especially in our laws that we are governed by an untouchable, elite bureaucracy in Brussels. Even though i do think the UK is better off in than out I admire the attempt and i still think it is only an attempt.

Lets deal in common sense for a moment and have a look at some harsh realities.

You can’t leave the European Union and not have a border in Northern Ireland.

If you vote to Leave something – demand to leave something – you don’t have much negotiating power with the people who wanted you to stay. If a spouse announced to their long standing partner that he/she was leaving them for a younger friskier model. I don’t expect the jilted lover would agree to giving them unrestricted home access and a full laundry service as part of the divorce settlement.

You can’t get a free trade deal or a deal that is similiar to what participating EU members states get for one simple reason. Other member states will be encouraged to leave.

The U.K. is not going to get a soft Brexit for this very reason. In fact the E.U.will do their damnedest not to give them any Brexit at all.

Better Call Saul  Prime Minister – he’ll explain how the Underworld works.

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